Brace for ‘Super’ El Niño: PAGASA warns severe dry conditions loom by late 2026

Baguio City, Philippines – A very strong to potentially “super” El Niño is expected to develop by the latter part of 2026 and may persist into early 2027, raising concerns over reduced rainfall, prolonged dry conditions, and their possible impact on agriculture and water resources across the country, including the Cordillera Administrative Region.

During the DANUM 2026 Summit on May 29, PAGASA Baguio Senior Weather Specialist Engr. Larry Esperanza said climate models indicate a high probability that El Niño will emerge this June and gradually intensify in the succeeding months.

According to Esperanza, as cited by PIA-CAR, current ocean temperatures are already approaching El Niño thresholds. PAGASA data shows an 82% probability of El Niño developing between May and July and a 92% probability between June and August.

He explained that the phenomenon is expected to begin as a weak El Niño, strengthen to moderate levels by August, and potentially intensify into a very strong or even “super” El Niño by the last quarter of 2026.

“El Niño is officially declared when temperatures rise above +0.5°C. We are currently at the threshold… by the end of this year, it is almost certain we will be under a strong El Niño condition, and this weather pattern may continue until the first quarter of 2027,” he said.

Rainfall Expected to Decline After September

Despite the forecast, PAGASA said the Cordillera region is still expected to receive sufficient rainfall from June to September due to the southwest monsoon (Habagat), tropical cyclones, and other weather systems.

However, Esperanza warned that rainfall is projected to decline significantly beginning in October, with below-normal rainfall expected by November.

The reduction in rainfall could result in fewer rainy days and increased pressure on water resources, particularly affecting agriculture and irrigation systems.

Rice-Producing Areas May Be Affected

In Kalinga, particularly in Tabuk City—the Rice Granary of the Cordillera—the effects of a prolonged dry spell could be significant.

As one of the region’s major rice-producing areas, Tabuk relies heavily on a stable water supply for irrigation and crop production. Reduced rainfall and declining water levels in rivers and irrigation facilities could disrupt planting schedules, lower crop yields, and increase production costs for farmers.

Should El Niño intensify as projected, authorities said local farmers may face greater challenges in sustaining agricultural productivity and ensuring food security.

Monitoring and Preparedness

With the possibility of stronger El Niño conditions developing in the coming months, government agencies are closely monitoring weather patterns and preparing measures to mitigate the potential effects on farming communities, water resources, and local livelihoods.